![]() ![]() examined the performance of the sign and Kruskal Wallis tests under indeterminacy with applications to the COVID-19 reproduction rate and COVID-positive daily occupancy in ICU. proposed a gamma control chart based on generalized multiple dependent states using the COVID-19 mortality data. Statistical analysis and monitoring of COVID-19 data were also explored by some researchers using sampling plans under neutrosophic statistics. proposed a mathematical model for estimating the transmissibility rate of the coronavirus and showing a higher transmissibility rate for COVID-19 than for some other viruses. investigated the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 infection using a mathematical model to assess the effectiveness of several control measures. estimated the growth rate of COVID-19 infection in China using the exponential growth model. Since the outbreak, many studies have been undertaken to estimate the growth rates and understand the transmission dynamics of COVID-19. Yet, these measures have not helped in preventing deaths among the infected and vulnerable people. This had a positive effect in controlling the outbreak, but, with a substantial loss in economic and social costs during the lockdown. Also, the government has given non-pharmaceutical guidelines to mitigate the spread of the virus through social distancing rules, isolation and quarantine, use of nose masks, hand washing, and smaller gathering of people at a time. Recently, there has been an improvement in the number of COVID-19 testing centers and an increase in testing capacity across the states in Nigeria due to the support of international donor agencies and the Federal government. However, there is apprehension about the total number of confirmed cases in Nigeria due to low testing. To detect the presence of a virus, tests are conducted on individuals an infected person is isolated and quarantined to prevent the spread of the virus. As of 7 th October 2021, the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases, discharged cases, active cases, and deaths in Nigeria as given by NCDC are 206920, 194651, 9471, and 2740 respectively. ![]() Daily records of confirmed cases, recoveries, and deaths including cumulative figures are provided by Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC). Since the first index case in Nigeria, there has been a gradual rise in the number of confirmed cases, recoveries, and mortality. In Nigeria, the first index case of COVID -19 was detected on 27 th February 2020. Globally, the number of confirmed cases as of 7 th October 2021 is 236 132 082 and the number of deaths due to COVID-19 is given as 4 822 472. To date, COVID-19 cases have been confirmed in over 188 countries on different continents, Africa and including Nigeria. However, to mitigate the effect of the pandemic, considerable research effort has led to the development of vaccines that have been approved for use in reducing the impact of COVID-19 infections and deaths. The infection rate and the number of deaths due to the COVID-19 pandemic across the globe are high with a new strain of the virus discovered recently. Some of the symptoms of the disease may include fever, cough shortness of breath, chills, muscle pain, and loss of taste or smell which may appear 2–14 days after exposure. The virus spreads primarily from person to person through respiratory droplets. It is one of the rare diseases that has constituted the biggest threat to the existence of humanity and has negatively impacted the economies of many countries. The novel coronavirus SAR-CoV-2 virus (also known as COVID-19) is a highly contagious disease first detected in Wuhan, China in December 2019. Also, the exact point of change was visible on the Gamma-CUSUM chart which was impossible on a standard normal-CUSUM control chart. The results revealed that the Gamma-CUSUM chart first signals a change in the number of deaths on day 68 while there was no change in the number of deaths for the standard normal-CUSUM chart. The performance of the proposed Gamma-CUSUM chart as a monitoring scheme was compared with the standard normal-CUSUM chart. In addition, a control chart to monitor the COVID-19 deaths based on the best-fit distribution is proposed. This paper aims to model the COVID-19 mortality in Nigeria using four non-normal distributions grouped under the generalized gamma distribution, by specifying the best-fit distribution to model the number of deaths linked to the COVID-19 pandemic. The increase in the number of infections and the worrisome state of mortality linked to the COVID-19 pandemic demand an optimal statistical model and efficient monitoring scheme to analyze the deaths.
0 Comments
Leave a Reply. |
AuthorWrite something about yourself. No need to be fancy, just an overview. ArchivesCategories |